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Ledger & Signal

Tech and finance for Malaysia — financial literacy without the product pitch, and technology coverage that says whether it matters.

Investing & Markets

The ringgit’s move against the dollar is not really about the ringgit

Most of the variance in the last eighteen months traces to US rate expectations.

Abstract gradient standing in for a photograph on "The ringgit’s move against the dollar is not really about the ringgit"
Illustration: generated for demonstration

A weakening ringgit reliably produces domestic explanations: political uncertainty, subsidy policy, commodity exposure. Each is real. None explains the timing.

The correlation

Plot the ringgit against the two-year US Treasury yield and most of the movement resolves. This is not a Malaysian phenomenon — it happened simultaneously to the won, the baht and the yen.

What that implies

If the driver is external, domestic policy responses aimed at the exchange rate are expensive and largely ineffective. The more useful question is which domestic exposures the move actually affects: imported food, dollar-denominated debt, and anyone with tuition payable overseas.

The ringgit’s move against the dollar is not really about the ringgit · Ledger & Signal